Friday, October 31, 2008

Interesting early voting pattern, if it holds up

Please take this with a grain of salt. It runs counter to anything that people who are much smarter than me are saying. If it holds true, however, I am seeing something no one else seems to be recognizing and I need to immediately be providing political commentary opposite the ever-so-dreamy Megyn Kelly on Fox News. If I'm wrong, chalk it up to me being a hack seeing things through rosy glasses. Here goes:

The Las Vegas Review-Journal reported the following early voting exit poll results:

Exit polling of early voters conducted by a local political consultant suggests a close presidential contest in the Silver State: Democratic nominee Barack Obama had the votes of 50 percent who had voted, while Republican nominee John McCain had 48 percent of the early vote.

Why is this intriguing? Because there are way more Democrats that have voted than Republicans. According to the article:

On the first day of early voting, 62 percent of Clark County voters were Democrats, while 23 percent were Republicans and the rest nonpartisans or members of minor parties. Through Sunday, 55 percent of early voters were Democrats, 29 percent Republicans. In Washoe County, 51 percent of the early voters through Sunday were Democrats, while 33 percent were Republicans.

What does that tell me? Democrats are getting out to vote, but many more of them are defecting and voting for McCain than was being anticipated. Could it be the Hillary factor? Is there really a Bradley effect? Operation Chaos? We won't know until Wednesday morning.

There seems to be similar early numbers coming out of Florida, too. According to the LA Times:

Democrats are beaming that their party is outperforming the Republicans in early voting, releasing numbers Wednesday that show registrants of their party ahead 54 percent to 30 percent among the 1.4 million voters who have gone to the polls early.

We're thrilled at the record turnout so far," said Democratic Party of Florida spokesman Eric Jotkoff. "It's a clear indication that Democrats want to elect Barack Obama and Democrats up and down the ballot so that we can start creating good jobs, rebuilding our economy and getting our nation back on track.

But party breakdowns for turnout aren't the same as final tallies, and at least one poll offered a different view for the campaign of Republican John McCain.

A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll gave McCain a 49-45 lead over Democrat Barack Obama among Floridians who have already voted.

It could be nothing, but if this trend of heavy Democrat defections continues in all battleground states through election day, it could be good news for McCain-Palin.

Like I said, take this with a grain of salt.

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